Behind The Headlines – 2025 Mid-Season Review
After fourteen races, the big conclusion from the 2025 season are in. As we enter the second half of the year, what are the things to watch for, and what do they tell us about the state of the sport heading into the final half of the season ahead of a big regulation change for 2026? This feels like the case of McLaren, as they seek their first drivers’ championship since 2008 and defend their first constructors’ since 1998, Zak Brown has talked about the team’s ambition to make it an ‘exclusive’ fight between its drivers. While Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari dream is not perfect, Red Bull in further chaos as its on/off track performance causes fall out…
The Year of McLaren?
The 2025 season picked up for them where they had left off in Abu Dhabi, with wins in Melbourne, and they have been pretty much even between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri its seven all in both of GP Qualifying and Race, though Piastri has a 3-0 lead in sprint qualifying and 2-1 lead in sprint races. But there appears to be this mutual respect towards each other and the team; this could, however, turn sour when the fight for the championship gets to the business end.
I think they have both made that next step they needed to this season. It feels as if everyone was talking up Norris going into this season because of the way he challenged Max Verstappen, and we expected him to be leading the team, not as an official number one, but by his results and form. But Piastri has kept him honest and pushed him, both proving that he is as deserving of a championship. The feeling with ten weekends to go is that this is the McLaren battle.
The thing which has impressed me is the handling of the fallout following the late collision between the two drivers in Montreal, as we know Norris took responsibility for the collision. I was concerned, as we know he has admitted to things like this impacting his mental health, but this season them hasn’t appeared to knock in confidence as we saw in Spielberg and Silverstone.
On the other hand, you have Piastri, who seems, compared to Norris be more closed off with his struggles and appears to be going about his job without fuss as they both push each other. We have heard a lot about ‘Papya Rules’ this season; these rules appear to change slightly race-to-race and depending on the situation, but the core principles are ‘don’t hit each other and we will ensure equality in the championship fight.’
McLaren may be the team to beat, but to me, this feels different to the domination over the last decade by Mercedes and Red Bull; they don’t appear in my view to have a huge advantage where they can be hurt by mistakes or conditions. But they are still in the position where over the next nine races as favourites with a three-hundred-point lead, nearly, where they can drop the ball once or twice and still not risk the championship.
Red Bull
Red Bull has continued this slide and drop off in performance we saw from the middle of last year, it’s slightly surprising given that twenty months ago we were talking about one of the most dominant seasons of all time. We have been talking about the situation, which goes beyond on-track performance, as there has been a lot of internal drama and departures from the team.
I think there are several reasons for this, and potentially, as we said in last year’s season review, it shows the regulations are working, as the restriction on resources and budget caps are having an impact. I still believe the swap between Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda was trying to cover up the weaknesses, as we know and have seen throughout this season, there are fundamental problems with the car, which even Max Verstappen has struggled with.
Verstappen, as we often say, is once in a once-in-a-generation talent. He has been struggling, and though he has picked up a few wins, he can’t drive around the problems with the car, and we are seeing that frustration creeping in. There continues to be rumours about his future. Though we believe that one clause has been covered off by where he is in the championship, but there could be other clauses.
The question I’ve seen popping up is “does Red Bull have a second driver problem?” to me this is not a yes or no answer, as its more complex as I think their has been hidden flaws with their car a Mercedes Singapore in 2014/15 where they were so dominant the issues they would only become clear when they were caught. I think Verstappen has been unhappy with things, as it has been suggested he believes the swap between Lawson and Tsunoda was trying to cover up these issues.
I don’t think that Verstappen will retain his title, but he has been challenging McLaren when Red Bull has been on the pace. You need to wonder, as his respective teammates have scored half the points of him, whether the car has gone too far towards his what has been described as a unique style as he likes a car to be aggressive turn-in, a preference for oversteer, and a natural feel for grip. He excels at balancing the car on the edge of control and is known for his ability to extract maximum performance from the car.
There are several reasons behind their difficult season, and I don’t see how they could mount a serious comeback for the titles.
Ferrari
There was much hype and a year’s worth of build-up to the blockbuster move of Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari and even looking back now, a false dawn in China, but it has been a mixed first half for the seven-time champion. But it appears that for him the first half of the year ended on a downward trend with those almost painful comments that ‘Ferrari should replace him,’ I think he didn’t really mean that, more his instant reaction to his GP qualifying at Spa.
While I think the beginning of the season would require some adaptation, I didn’t think it would be this difficult. Yes, he has not only changed teams but engine manufacturers for the first time in his career. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, he can build towards a stronger version, heading into 2026.
The biggest thing and most difficult thing to change at Ferrari is the culture, and over the break I think is coming I hope that Hamilton finds himself going into next year’s regulation change. But it looks like they have resolved the biggest weakness, though they haven’t managed to use it to fight for victories and regularly at the front, given the advantage of McLaren.
I don’t think Hamilton is past it, but yes he is slower in qualifying as he is a older driver, though Spa was a tough race for him he fought back to get a decent result after being knocked out in Q1, as he could I feel have been fighting nearer the front for maybe a podium as they got the strategy right.
One of the reasons we believe Ferrari wanted Hamilton was to see how good Charles Leclerc is and whether he is a potential champion in waiting. I feel he has risen to the challenge and he is when the car is in the right window. I’ve sat and written it feels many of times Ferrari has struggled by not maximising results, but recently, despite the at times ruthless nature, they have renewed the contract of Fred Vasseur I think the team and board still have confidence, as we saw when his contract was renewed, to turn things around.
Midfield
It doesn’t feel as if there is a clear distinction this season between midfield and the backmarkers. In terms of the patterns we have seen, there are thirty-one points between sixth and tenth in the constructors. So it’s very tight and it could change a lot, one of the standout and surprising moments was Nico Hulkenberg’s podium at Silverstone.
That to me feels like it came from nowhere, as Sauber had a really good weekend and they took advantage of the conditions to fight through for the podium. This came at a good time as there were rumours about Audi starting to doubt the decision to join F1. But there is still a lot for them to play for, saying one of them takes a win, we normally get one freak result each season; it could be tough.
Williams are leading Aston Martin by eighteen points, which I think is impressive given both teams are focusing on 2026, but as I expected, Williams has, in my view, the stronger and more equal driver pairing after Carlos Sainz found his feet. The team it feels to me has been surprising for them as there hasn’t been much in terms of upgrades. This has been a surprise where whereas Aston Martin appears not to have made the recovery to the strength they have in 2023
Given their difficulties this season and Adrian Newey joining the team, there was this suggestion that he could offer advice on the 2025 car, but while I understand the logic behind that, I find it difficult to believe he is not offering some advice, even if it’s only over coffee or lunch. It’s been reported that he is working in a ‘small bubble’ away from the 2025 programme.
As we know, for all these teams, the constructors is very important for these teams as it’s worth millions in terms of prize money, and thus future investment in the resources, as I think the vast majority are now spending at or near the budget cap. Haas is looking at their ninth place in the constructors, which doesn’t feel right, as I think they are delivering and are often just outside the points.
The rookies
I feel the rookie, from what I’ve read and thought, who stands out to me is Isack Hadjar. He entered the sport without this hype we normally get around Red Bull drivers, and there was that shaky start with the did not start after a crash on his way to the grid. That could have been quite damaging, but since then, there hasn’t been many if any, major mistakes, and he has been beating his teammates, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson, but I’m worried about the potential damage to his confidence or strong season like we have seen too many times at Red Bull and their second team.
Kimi Antonelli, I think he was a bit of a slow burner in the first five races as he found his feet, but then we saw why Mercedes went for him with the sprint pole in Miami. That was his breakthrough as since then, barring the odd mistakes noticeably at his home race in Imola and Spielberg, I has generally been on an upward trend and he is getting there to match Russell, which the hype suggested last year even before he was announced as a driver.
Gabriel Bortoletto, nothing really stands out, I missed his best race as I was in France, was Austria maybe that’s why, as a moment for me, but I think he has done ok. Looking at it on paper, he made it into Q3 and held off Fernando Alonso, his manager, to finish seventh, which perhaps was a sign of the mid-season.
Jack Doohan, it feels was almost set up to fail, meaning he didn’t have time to show what he could do, but like most of the rookies, the opening races were tough and that put him under pressure from Franco Colapinto and as accidents happened in both Melbourne and Shanghai. Though Suzuka wasn’t his fault with the issues in FP2, he didn’t seem to get results, which it was implied he needed to if he didn’t meet certain things, he wouldn’t be in for the whole season.
Colapinto, Ollie Bearman and Lawson, I’m including as they haven’t done twenty-four races, heard this phrase “full season rookies”, I think Bearman has delivered what we expected following his stand-in drives last season, given where Haas are. Bearman is often just outside the points, so his championship position doesn’t reflect his season, which has been consistent, and he is pushing Ocon. He could become one of the characters of the sport and even the heir to Hamilton, if Ferrari wants to stick with an Englishman.
Since Canada bearing the Spa Sprint, Bearman has finished eleventh four times in a row and had and brilliant race in Shanghai. Hopefully in the second half of the season he can get points on the board but that could be difficult as we are into a ‘bigger’ transition phase with the regulation changes but we still have the more unpredictable races like Baku, Singapore and Soa Paulo, where Bearman raced at two of the three last season, that might help him compared to the other rookies.
Looking to second half
Nine races remain over the next three and a half months; this championship fight is going to be certainly between Norris and Piastri, they have a comfortable lead in both the drivers and constructors. The team are preparing for there to be another on-track incident between them, and we know that despite Norris taking responsibility for Montreal, it appears that he hasn’t gone into beating himself up.
It looks like we have two competing characteristics like Prost-Senna, Piastri being more clinical and focused, getting on with hopefully for him winning the championship, we will see which one of them wins the championship, both will be worthy as we have seen them both fight hard. McLaren, I think, is unlikely to win them all.
I do think Verstappen has a role to play as he has been the driver most consistently their behind the two McLarens, but the situation at Red Bull is turbulent, the biggest role I think he can play is influencing which driver wins the championship. Red Bull has effectively been a one-car team, meaning I think we need to see progress from Tsunoda if the team are to mount an unlikely comeback
These nine races I think are important for Hamilton after his difficult season. He needs to find himself again and build for next year, as I think he needs to get it right to be back at the front. Hoping that this has been a reset mentally over the break, as he has had some good races, but his qualifying results has let him down as he is coming from further back, if he can sort qualifying out he may get podiums and wins.
We also have very different races and factors at all the races, whether that be type of circuit, climate conditions, and half of them are either twilight or night races, which could be key how the drivers are able to adapt to the various conditions and circuits. I think there is a lot which can happen in the coming nine races, but this could go down as one of the greatest inter-teammate championship fights ever, the question is, when the regulations change next year will McLaren continue to lead the way…