Mercedes have kick started the new regulation cycle with three wins from three Grand Prix as we expected after the Sakhir Test and with the unplanned ‘Spring Break’. Three rounds in the foundations are set, but with this break caused by the war in Iran its an unexpected five weeks where for the teams it’s going to be an important and unexpected time to develop and resolve issues.
Mercedes team to beat?
Mercedes have kick started this season with three wins, one for George Russell and three for Kimi Antonelli. Going into this season, many expected Russell to have the upper hand over Antonelli, but after three races, it’s the Italian teenager who leads the championship. Mercedes, as was rumoured about a year ago have as predicted have come out on top as the early leaders.
However, to me, this doesn’t feel like a 2009 or 2014 situation, given that the gap isn’t as dominating, but it is clear they have an advantage. Ferrari, in particular, during the first stint of the three Grands Prix we have seen have been close and have fought Mercedes, but over the course of this season, will he have the capacity to manage a championship fight?
We saw last year with Oscar Piastri, who was in his second season, that implosion of his championship challenge following the summer break, and that might have been down to his inexperience. Obviously, they are different drivers; we know that Mercedes sees the Italian as ‘the next big thing’, but is season two going up against Russell, who has a decade’s worth of experience, too big a challenge?
Lewis Hamilton, the comparison will be made as his first title came in his second season, but that’s not a fair comparison, as the now seven-time champion was up against Heikki Kovalainen, who had completed the same number of races. However, Hamilton was in his debut season, fighting for the championship.
The second half of the season, from September, when we get into the final nine races, largely made up of double and triple headers, as things currently stand, is where championships are won and lost. How will Mercedes and its drivers, if as we expect, be the only drivers realistically bearing extraordinary results fighting for this championship, but maybe we need to think of modern F1 differently, given its reliability, stability, etc. it breed car we enjoyed in the late 2000’s and 2010’s.
How good is the racing?
On the surface, as fans of the racing, at least in the midfield has been unchanged. But looking a bit deeper, the headlines, the drivers, barring Max Verstappen, are enjoying racing these cars. One of the things I was expecting was a bigger field spread between and within the three traditional groups.
As we know, and will get to shortly, there has been criticism of these regulations and fears highlighted by Ollie Bearman’s huge crash at Suzuka on Sunday due to his overspeed when trying to pass Franco Colapinto. This will be investigated as it might need refining or changes to the regulations, and the FIA has the power to change rules on safety grounds without the usual process.
But to me it appears broadly to have built on the aims of the 2022 regulations, and looking more deeply away from the heat of covering a race weekend, Mercedes appear not to have as big an advantage compared to the 2014 power unit regulations. However yes, there are some refinements that are needed around various modes and how they are used.
These three groups, the top four Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, though Mercedes and Ferrari are slightly ahead and Red Bull slightly behind. The midfield Alpine, Haas, Racing Bulls and Audi, Williams, and backmarkers Aston and Cadillac, the fastest times were largely correct. Though the standings are slightly different for various reasons.
People don’t like change. There was always going to be discourse on social media. I, however, think we won’t seriously decline in viewers or income; they can’t scrap these power units as that will raise questions about losing manufacturers like Ford, Honda, Audi and Cadillac. If it were to totally abandon this path the formula has gone down
I think Verstappen has made the comments, in more detail below, too soon and out of frustration because he is not where he wants to be. The challenge I feel for Ferrari and McLaren, which I think over the course of this season and regulation cycle, will be able to fight for championships, but to me, it feels like digging deeper, I feel the field is closer because of the changes.
It may not look like it from the headlines and results, but when I’ve looked at post-race weekends and time away, looking at the analysis from data races and those experts, there have been mistakes by Ferrari in terms of strategy, but there have been incredible close and gripping fights for third between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc which I’ve been encouraged by.
Given the way Hamilton’s season played out last season, he needed a good and much stronger start, but he was let down in 2025 by his struggles in qualifying. I’m now thinking, could that be looking back over the last four seasons, if this season develops as we have a good fight?
I think the seven-time champion going into his third decade next year in this sport is still hungry, the exact opposite of Verstappen, that’s why he is still here, as he doesn’t need F1, as the Hamilton brand is one of the most powerful for individual sports stars, and his brother, in sport, shown by the F1 Movie.
If he does, at least win a race with Ferrari this year, that will be a huge moment in the season, even if it plays out that he is not fighting for the championship, as Mercedes appears to me to have too big an advantage unless there is a major change in the next four races.
There is a big opportunity with this break, unlike the August break, there isn’t the mandatory shutdown. We were expecting big upgrades in Bahrain and Barcelona, where testing took place earlier in the year. That for teams will give them comparisons, but as that Barcelona test took place behind closed doors for us, the fans and journalists, it has made our learning a bit less than normal.
Max Verstappen’s future
Max Verstappen has made no secret of his dislike of these new regulations, even threatening to quit the sport, and it’s clear that he isn’t happy with the regulations. I always thought this season would be a huge test of his character and patience, which I think has already been made clear in my view: he is not a Fernando Alonso or Lewis Hamilton going for longevity in his F1 career.
Being a top-level F1 driver has changed, and as a multiple-time champion, he has a big brand and a lot of money; we believe he is one of the top earners. But his comments, like ‘artificial racing’, were made in Suzuka and are potentially damaging and don’t help the image of the sport. I’ve seen on social media, though I don’t know if they are pre-Drive To Survive or longstanding fans, people saying ‘I’m going to turn off’ ‘I agree with Verstappen’.
Verstappen would like F1 to change the rules, but that is because he has a fundamental, almost primal, objection to what they have done to the cars. The Red Bull driver is talking from the heart. He has been saying similar things not just since the start of this season, but since he first tried the 2026 cars in the simulator a couple of years ago. He doesn’t like what he calls ‘artificial racing.’
I understand these cars appear not to suit him; similarly, the last regulations didn’t suit Lewis Hamilton, though the seven-time champion stuck it out despite the way for most of last year.
I praise BBC F1 presenter Jennie Gow for that extraordinary scoop, and Red Bull allowing her to bend the rules in his pen interview on Sunday, it was extraordinary. Not just for its openness, honesty and eloquence, but also for the fact that he was happy to keep talking beyond the usual limits.
F1’s guidelines restrict broadcasters to two questions in the ‘pen’ after a race. But Jennie sensed Verstappen’s mood and kept going, asking five in total. Anna Webster, Verstappen’s PR handler at Red Bull, realised he wanted to keep talking, so she let them carry on.
The result was a profound insight into Verstappen’s state of mind, listening and reading that interview as well as writing about it on Sunday, as well as his post-qualifying comments, which were shocking to hear. Verstappen, in my view, isn’t a driver who always ‘toes the party line’, and that’s one of the privileges of being a four-time champion.
The issue for the four-time world champion – and he knows it – is that while the teams and rule makers are determined to improve the situation this year, especially in making qualifying more on the limit, there is only so much that can be done in the context of the engines.
Suzuka, I think, was a PR nightmare, as the weekend started with Verstappen ejecting a journalist, Giles Richards, from his media briefing. Verstappen’s problem with Richards arises from a question he asked after the race in Abu Dhabi last year. At that race, Richards asked if the Red Bull driver “regretted” his incident with Mercedes’ George Russell at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Ferrari
After three races, Ferrari, though at this stage of the season, appears slightly too far off Mercedes to regularly be challenging them for race wins and the championship. Though that could be at this early stage in the season, and given we have this pause could change in Miami and/or Monaco, though it will not be clear until Barcelona.
The fight in both Shanghai and Suzuka between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc proves that if they were closer, as I think they will be after the aero reset in June and if Mercedes win constantly, I think it will get increasingly difficult to see them fighting for the championship. That’s mainly because, as we know, if you can win the majority of races in the first half of the season, you are more likely to win the championship.
Hamilton needed a good start; he not only struggled significantly last season, but during the whole ground effect era, these cars are similar to the smaller 2009 and 2014 generation of cars, where he was winning races and six of his seven titles. Yes, Ferrari are 18 and 17 years without a driver’s or constructors’ championship, but this could be the start of them heading back towards championships.
The better performances by the seven-time champion were really needed, and I believe after struggling last year, he has been renewed by these regulation changes as he really didn’t get on well during the ground effect era. I think last year was also about
McLaren
I think the world champions have made an OK start, to this season but they are on the back foot, and as things were looking for a lot worse after Sakhir, but we have over the last generation of cars, them coming from the back into. After the tough race in shanghai a double did not start, and Oscar Piastri also did not starting after crashing on his way to the grid.
But the feeling I have based on what we have seen this season and the previous regulation cycle, they are not as far behind as they were in 2022, but now having fully completed the redevelopment at their wind tunnel and the MTC, as well as the key personnel in place you can’t count them out, given the team I think were most improved over the last four seasons.
The opening races have been a wake-up call, after they dominated the last eighteen months largely. I think it proves the financial regulations are working, but don’t discount them as they are still in the tight group behind the leaders, Mercedes. It’s hard when you have won a championship and there having to buil there car back towards fighting at the front.
They haven’t been helped by Piastri not starting two Grands Prix and Norris one, but we have seen this year lots of upgrades, and the teams we think they are fighting are Ferrari and Red Bull, though it’s going to be interesting how this plays out this year and the next few years.
To me, it seems that they are starting from a much stronger place than in 2022, we know that in four years, they developed themselves into being a two-time constructors and drivers championship. Despite that they can come back, there appears to be no significant fatigue or big drop-off, as we saw with Mercedes in 2022 or in 2009.
Midfield
Alpine, I think, has been in some ways vindicated by their controversial decision to end their works power unit programme, though we will never know what Renault were developing and how good it could have been. But they have a decent base to build from and could be in a fight with Haas for best of the rest. The French team, then called Lotus, when previously running Mercedes power units, scored decent results
Pierre Gasly was maybe the right driver to stick with as he has brought that team back into the midfield, and that can’t be underestimated, how much of a boost that would have been. But looking over the last decade, they have failed to win championships, which was the stated aim when they returned to being a works team in 2016.
Haas have, in my view, a part from when they first entered in 2016, have, after reset or changes in the regulations, gone backwards, but they have made a decent start and one of the best starts for them as a team, which they needed if they want to progress to be a long-term midfield team. If, over the next few years, they need to solidify their status in the midfield.
Ollie Bearman’s fifth in Shanghai shows potential not just for this season but over the cycle as long as they don’t fall into previous traps. They have stable long-term funding thanks to the Toyota partnership.
Audi, I think, has made a really good start, given they are a new power unit manufacturer, but while they are in the lower end, they are still learning and developing their team. But they have the advantage over the new entrants/teams of over thirty years of Sauber being in the sport.
Their biggest challenge is not having that experience as a team, but that’s despite having a highly developed base and infrastructure after thirty years, because they need to jell the team together as well as their different bases.
What to watch during spring break?
The unplanned six-week break between Suzuka and Miami comes early in the regulation cycle and season, after six ‘events’ its gives teams time to assess where they are, as they only had a two-week break following the Sakhir test. Obviously not going back to Bahrain also carries a disadvantage of not having an earlier comparison of progress, and the teams needing to wait until June to compare in Barcelona.
We were expecting in Bahrain a big round of upgrades, probably the second and last round until Barcelona, which causes headaches as the next three weekends aren’t traditional and there are sprint weekends, then Monaco. It’s an important time as they aren’t going to get ‘unrestricted’ development time in season, as there is the summer shutdown.
There, of course will as with any break in the calendar be an opportunity to develop, and for the rumour mill. I expect that when we get the upgrade list in Miami and Barcelona, the list will be released before FP1. It will be interesting to see what the teams can find and whether over the break Mercedes the dominance?
