BEHIND THE HEADLINES – Bahrain Testing – Themes emerging from testing
Testing, testing, testing, is finally over, and we head to Melbourne now for the opening weekend of the new season. While testing isn’t accurate, it has, over the last decade, given a good guide, but spin season will remain in full force until we get the first qualifying and race underway.
In testing, the feeling that we have from watching the test is that Ferrari has sprung a surprise on all of us during the final test, suggesting that they are in the mix with Mercedes and McLaren, as the leading group. Many expected Mercedes to be ahead, but that is true, but their downfall, at least for the works team, is reliability, as during last week’s third test, Ferrari emerged as the best all-rounder. McLaren is looking on the right path, but Red Bull is slightly on the back foot.
Four teams
The top four teams appear to be close enough for the pecking order to likely change across different tracks and different conditions, depending on each car’s strengths. Red Bull looks the best with their deployment efficiency, which means they could use more electrical energy for longer. Mercedes is rumoured to have the best power train, which thus also helps McLaren, who have good aerodynamics, and Ferrari to me look to have the best all-rounder.
Mercedes, for the last eighteen months, has been talked up ahead of this season, given the way they masterminded the regulation changes the previous power unit change, and given the way that they dominated in 2009 and more so in 2014. They have been considered by the majority of experts as the team to beat, which also helps their customer, McLaren, as they look to have a bit of work to do, but they are not infallible.
In the second test, Mercedes didn’t chase performance in the same way that Ferrari did; they also didn’t do a proper full race simulation. But what we do know is that their outright speed wasn’t as good in the warmer conditions; however, their race simulations looked to be several tenths faster than Ferrari.
Red Bull has built their own power unit with the help of Ford, but I don’t think they are quite there to be fighting for championships. They do have a decent basis to develop from over the next few years, but I think it was too ambitious for a brand-new supplier to come in and challenge right away.
However, the signs are there, given that the team’s resurgence under team principal Laurent Mekies, led by four-time world champion Max Verstappen, should also not be underestimated. Having said that, Red Bull does have the potential disadvantage of the relatively inexperienced Isack Hadjar in its second seat, while its direct rivals can boast formidable driver pairings.
Ferrari, I think, needs a more expansive answer, see below
But the big conclusion I think is that it’s going to be a fascinating season and the next few years based on what we saw during testing… if it plays out how we expect.
Are (Genuinely) Ferrari in the mix?
The gap on paper looks big, but I don’t think it is as big as it looks, as we know testing only gives us a guide. The basis is there, the car looked compliant and had decent performance, the only real question, which I think is across the board, is how genuine the performance is, and we haven’t seen any car in real anger.
If the car is fighting at the front for the majority of the season, the difficult 2025 after they stopped developing last year’s car last April, as we then saw they went backwards, as Lewis Hamilton really struggled with the car. For both drivers look and have a reason to deliver results. They have taken a steady approach to developing the car, adding performance throughout testing.
Even if they are not the fastest of all, they are right in the thick of it and definitely in contention for podiums and race wins. Considering they didn’t win a Grand Prix last year; this marks a significant step forward for the Scuderia and gives them a great foundation on which to build.
Also, when I’ve been listening to Leclerc and Hamilton comments over the last year, they have focused a lot on this season, which has given them a good basis. Throughout the three test, especially in Sakhir, where we had the experimental rear wing, I think they made the most incremental gains, not headlining. Vasseur says that they were happy with what they achieved.
But, the trends, the data and the chatter among senior sources at teams is that the worst is inside the top four teams, who look very closely matched, and at best second, or maybe even first, depending on the circuit layout. Obviously, we need to see how these opening few race plays out.
The midfield
The midfield is again close, but there still looks to be a sizable gap to the leading teams. As it stands, Alpine’s difficult decisions and tough few years on track appear to be paying off, but it is tight with Haas, Racing Bulls and Williams. The French team needed this as they ended their works engine programme, and they have got their act together.
Yes, they would have been boosted by what we think is a grid-leading Mercedes power unit, but it was also a need for them to get their aero right, which they have appeared to do as we saw Pierre Gasly trade fastest laps with Ollie Bearman on the final day in Sakhir, as well as their long run pace looking good. The team feel like they’ve got a good baseline to work from as they look to add performance through the season.
Haas, another sign perhaps of the leadership of Ayo Komatsu, and their new partnership with Toyota and a closer partnership with Ferrari, they had their smoothest winter since entering the sport. I think, given that most of their gains during last season came not through upgrade but through optimisation.
That may be trickier, given we know for the next few years there will be an arms race to try and out-develop each other. It will be interesting as these will be the first regulations under which teams have fully developed their cars under a cost cap and resource restrictions. This will allow the midfields
Despite missing the shakedown, Williams finished testing, saying that they have recovered what they missed out on in Barcelona, and I still believe likely to be on the back foot having lost three days in terms of knowledge and experience. But that may only start to play out from mid-season if they are in that fight.
They also have the advantage of two experienced drivers, which could help them to recover what they lost in testing. They had high hopes, perhaps not challenging straight away for the championship, but securing their spot as midfield leaders. This may be a big learning as they admit they were too ambitious with their development targets; they were trying to achieve by building the car as late as possible.
Racing Bulls are also facing an important season, as they have forged closer ties with Red Bull; they should also see progress in the midfield group. But as we know you can’t buy your way to success, and they will need to wait and see how this develops over the coming years, as to me it feels that the success on theses regulations will also need to be measured against the 2021 financial regulations as well as the resource restrictions agreements, as we know this decade we will find out how this plays out…