BEHIND THE HEADLINES – New Year, New Formula – A look ahead to 2026
2026 sees another overhaul of both aero and, for the first time since 2014, power unit regulations, all once again designed to further close the gap between the four existing manufacturers and the two new manufacturers. This is a huge reset which impacts could take time to bed in, and could make it harder for McLaren to defend the championship.
These regulations effectively make this a new series as the Formula has drastically changed, and the teams are having to radically overhaul the car, and as we saw in 2014 and 2022, if you get it right, you may dominate the first few years as well as the majority of the regulation cycle. But could the attempts to restrict resources over the last five years pay off over the next five years, which is designed to be the length of this cycle
New Technology
Power Units (PU)
The new power units will be a 50-50 split between electric power and the internal combustion engine, with nearly a 300 per cent increase in electrical power. The engine itself is still the same 1.6-litre V6 turbo that has been used since 2014, but all the bits around that have changed, including the disappearance of the MGU-H.
When we get to Barcelona Testing in late January and the first Sakhir test until the true picture starts to become clear, although that will not be totally clear until qualifying in Melbourne. Drivers will manage electrical energy throughout races – sometimes even on qualifying laps – to secure the best performance.
Overtake mode
This replaces the DRS overtaking aid. A burst of extra electrical energy is available when drivers are within a second of the car in front to deploy power to assist with an overtake.
Boost mode
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Driver-operated energy deployment from the energy recovery system that can be used in attack or defence. Gives the driver maximum power from the engine and battery at the push of a button.
Both these modes will have to be used with calculation, as total energy is limited. This is similar to the KERS and ERS systems used between 2009 and 2021, made up of power from the engine and battery.
Active aero
The front and rear wings adjust angles – open on the straights for low drag and speed, and closed in the corners for maximum downforce.
Recharge
Drivers can recharge their battery with energy recovered from braking, or on throttle lift at the end of the straights or in corners where only partial power is applied.
Regulation changes
Smaller cars
Cars are going back to a similar size, roughly to 2009, with the wheel base reduced by 200mm to 3,400mm, width by 100mm, down to 1,900mm, and the minimum weight reduced by 30kg. At least to start with, this will lead to a 15 to 30% reduction in downforce, thus a reduction in drag.
Active aero
The active aerodynamics, similar to DRS, which will see both the front and rear wings open on the straights to reduce drag and increase straight-line speed and click back into place for maximum cornering performance. This can be used at any time within the designated zones, so you do not have to be within a certain gap of another car.
Overtake Mode
This is the replacement for the DRS, with various zones around the circuit; however, unlike the DRS, drivers don’t need to be within a second of the car in front. The increased energy recovered under braking can be deployed creatively by drivers, while there will also be a manual override mode to provide a further power boost when within a second of the car in front (a bit like DRS as an overtaking aid).
Tyres
Tyres will retain 18-inch wheel rims, but the tyres themselves will be narrower, by 25mm at the front and 30mm at the rear. We continue with the C1 (Hardest) – C5 (Softest) compound, but the changes in other regulations could increase tyre wear; however, the makeup and overall construction of the tyres is unchanged.
The questions, however, are what’s the tyre degradation is like? How much do you push on an out lap? Is the tyre more susceptible to higher surface temperatures?
Fuel
Each team will run 100 per cent sustainable fuel through non-food sources or waste, as F1 continues its goal to be net-zero carbon by 2030, another area which could be a performance differentiator.
Budget
Given the changes to the regulations this season, the budget cap has been increased for the first time since 2021, when it was introduced to £159.6m. This is an increase of £57.6m from when it was first brought in, as explained above, due to the change in regulations
(Supported in writing by BBC News)
The whole regulation changes will give the teams a clean slate for the first time since 2014, meaning that the sport will look and feel radically different in 2026. Under the new rules, the cars themselves will be shorter, thinner, lighter and nimbler, with the stated aim of creating better racing.
But there will be changes in the way drivers need to drive these cars as they will need to manage power deployment, aero modes and energy recovery, which look set to become a constant, relentless task inside the cockpit. Those simpler front and rear wings will become big talking points, as they are both part of the “active aero.”
The stories that will define the year
The main story going into the first quarter of the season, at least, is how these regulations shake up the order and whether we get closer racing. This could result in a 2022 and 2023 where Red Bull dominated, really up until mid-2024. I don’t want to say that’s not possible, I think it’s more unlikely to dominate on that scale.
While it’s way too early to predict the year ahead as we haven’t turned a wheel on track yet, there have been murmurings that, like in 2014, Mercedes have the best power units, which could help McLaren and Lando Norris to defend the championship. However, I haven’t seen a team when we have had such big regulation changes. If those rumours are correct and McLaren gets the aero right, this would be a huge achievement.
We may only get ‘mule cars’, and we are expecting cars to change rapidly before Melbourne, and naturally, teams won’t want to show their full potential until the final two days in Sakhir or even Saturday in Melbourne. Testing has evolved in recent years to be a more accurate guide, but in 2014, when we had the last power unit change, in the first test, there were a lot of power unit failures and interruptions, and there were a lot of stoppages especially in the Barcelona test.
Norris, regardless, has an important season for two scenarios: if McLaren is again at the front how does he go about defending his championship and show he is a great and a potential multiple world champion, or how, after the high of last year if McLaren has gone back into the midfield, how do they handle that.
The defining phrase over the past eighteen months has been the ‘papaya rules,’ designed to give Norris and Piastri equal opportunities to fight for the championship. However, Norris is now the champion despite the tight fight things have gone off track, has remained healthy and they appear to be able to get on, and resolve issues quickly without further problems.
But I think they will at some point need to pick a ‘favourite,’ if there are multiple teams and drivers in this title fight. One thing, I think we have learned from these financial regulations, is you can’t throw money at a problem. This, I believe, has led to teams not being able to throw money and wind tunnel time at a problem.
But the expectation is that the traditional top four, McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes, will remain the top four. There have been rumours both that Mercedes has found a huge advantage with their power unit, which also helps its customers, McLaren, Alpine and Williams, but they also need to get their aero right. Mercedes, I think are a bit different to the other customers, as Alpine and McLaren are car manufacturers, as is Cadillac, who have Ferrari engines until 2028.
We won’t know until testing or qualifying whether that prediction is correct, but word of horsepower levels and targets quickly spreads around F1 teams, especially through the natural movement of staff from one team to another. I think George Russell could be one to watch while he has been the team leader last year and it will be interesting to see how he shapes this new generation of cars and what they have learned from 2022 when they got it so wrong, to me it feels like there were always on the back foot at the start of the season, but there is always opportunities.
Make or break for Ferrari & its drivers, they are both in the final season of their contacts and how many times have we sat writing a review or a preview to a season where we have rolled out this stat ‘Ferrari are in their longest period without any kind of championship.’ We know that at the end of last year, chairman John Elkan told his drivers to ‘talk less.’ I disagree because that would only add to the rumour mill about what’s really going on at a Ferrari.
They need a good year and to be at the front, especially Lewis Hamilton, after a tough year. I think he has something to prove, as I think given a decent car, though, while ageing does slow drivers down, if he can be fighting back at the front and Ferrari are fighting McLaren, Red Bull and others, that would take the fight to whoever emerges as the front.
We also know that Charles Leclerc said in Abu Dhabi that the first quarter of this season will be key for his future. The man who was signed as a teenager by Ferrari and fast-tracked to the race team after a rookie year at Alfa Romeo has become the face of the team, but has also come to epitomise the ongoing frustration around the Italian outfit.
Leclerc will have a clear reason to be apprehensive going into the new regulation cycle. In 2022, Ferrari appeared to be the team to beat, and it won two of the first three races, only for the team’s form and season to unravel in gut-wrenching style from there. Bar a fleeting constructors’ championship fight with McLaren in 2024, but while they haven’t delivered a championship, Leclerc has delivered strong results consistently
There would be no bigger indictment of Ferrari’s failure in modern F1 if Leclerc decided his best bet to become a champion was to wear a colour other than red.
Red Bull also has an interesting season, for the first time in partnership with Ford, they are now an engine manufacturer. One of the driving forces behind these regulation changes was the fact that they wanted to be a ‘works team.’ It will also be the first full season without Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, so we might see more of what Laurent Mekies wants from the team
Aston Martin faces a big season, though, as we have been saying for the last three years they have put a lot of money and investment in this cycle with one clear goal: Lawrence Stroll wants make his team world champions; team boss Adrian Newey, F1’s greatest car designer, was the headline signing.
But despite these big signings, there has been undermining. Are there too many cooks in the kitchen? Adrian Newey has been promoted to team principal. They seem to be chopping and changing a lot, and that doesn’t lead to stability within a team, and that’s what they need to achieve the lofty ambitions.
Throughout last season, we didn’t really have a clear backmarker, though Alpine were, in my view, the weakest team; they still had their highs and if we get a season like that, given the scale of these regulation changes.
Four champions
For the first time in four years, we will have four world champions with Norris, Hamilton, Verstappen and Fernando Alonso. Norris will be seeking to build on last season as he seeks to join them by taking back-to-back titles and add to his maiden title, which will be harder given the regulation change, as Hamilton and Alonso found out in 2009.
This could go one of two ways for Norris, who I believe will win another championship given he has a good fifteen years ahead of him, if he chooses, either he has to deal with McLaren falling from the high and works his way back to being a championship challenger again, or they remain at the front. But given the scale of the regulation changes, it’s also down to Mercedes.
Verstappen, you can never count out, as look how last season he dragged Red Bull into the championship fight, but I think it’s going into this season, given the changes in regulations and becoming a power unit supplier.
Hamilton, I think, has to make ‘the Ferrari dream work’ this season, rediscover himself, which I don’t think means winning his eighth title, but if he can build himself back to being in the mix and fighting for poles, that could be a base for 2027. It would also help Ferrari to retain their ‘poster boy’, Leclerc. It’s hard to describe him without degrading Hamilton, but he is the future of Ferrari, and he faces a career-defining decision in the coming years if he is going to be a champion.
Hamilton is also in the latter part of his career. How long will he be motivated in some ways to continue to try and ‘write the wrongs’ of Abu Dhabi 2021, next year will be twenty years – yes, it’s that long – since the sport’s most successful team last won the drivers and constructors champion.
New and returning manufacturers
Ford & Red Bull Power Units
We have two new (or in Ford’s case returning) manufacturers, Ford historically is the fourth most successful engine manufacturer with Mercedes, Renault and Ferrari ahead of them. But as we saw when Honda returned to the sport it took them a while to be fighting at the front, and eventually their relationship with McLaren broke down. Red Bull was also in that situation with Renault.
I think this is going to be very interesting they haven’t been in the sport for two decades, and Red Bull themselves are technical partners; they aren’t a customer team now and they are responsible for building, in partnership with Ford the power train. This overtime could either be a hugely successful partnership as Ford has powered ten constructors’ championships and thirteen drivers, in various forms and Red Bull has eight drivers and seven constructors in fifteen years.
This seems a very good partnership for Red Bull, its sister team Racing Bulls and General Motors, the world’s third biggest car company and Red Bull, the biggest energy drink, based on 2024 figures. But however, they may need to go through some pain as they haven’t been in the sport for twenty-two years.
I remember the breakdown Red Bull had with Renault / Alpine and McLaren had with Honda in the first half of the 2010s. I think they will have to be patent as will Cadillac in 2028 or 2029 when they introduce their power unit. The difference is that despite every power unit being new, they won’t have ‘lived experience’, want could give others the edge on the operational side, and what they need is not to continue with chopping and changing
Audi
It feels that we have been talking about Audi’s parent Volkswagen returning to Grand Prix racing for the first time since 1939, as Auto Union, for the best part of a decade. Since taking over Sauber in 2022, they have been another to invest infrastructure opening technology centres in Motorsport Valley, in Northamptonshire, Oxfordshire and Buck, and Bavaria.
Johnathan Wheatley is another from Red Bull moving into a team principal role alongside former Ferrari TP Mattia Binotto, as de-facto deputy team principal, and chief operating and technical officer. This feels like a good pairing which Audi needs to give it time to develop the team and we know it takes at least four to five years to be fighting for wins and championships, based on Mercedes after they brought Brawn.
I think Audi needs to be patient and give it time. There have been reports that there were doubts given Sauber’s performance in 2024 and 2025, but that appeared to go away after Nico Hulkenberg’s podium at Silverstone. Sauber knows what it’s like to be a works team. Sauber is still the licence holder, though they are in effect now a subsidiary and they are the only team who are also in Moto GP, as they own Ducati, Formula E, which might be helpful.
Cadillac
This season, we have a new team entering the sport, though they won’t start producing a power unit 2028-29. This, I think is either a master stroke or bad idea, team principal Grame Lowdon returning the sport after a decade knows what it’s like to build a team from nothing given his experience in the 2010s with Marussia / Manor.
This feels different to the 2010 teams, and Haas has made it work they have been in the sport for a decade, and this is the first new manufacturer or will be in 2028 to enter as a fully-fledged manufacturer team when they introduce their own power unit. I think the reason they might succeed is that, unlike 2010 we have a budget cap and that didn’t materialise in 2010 meaning the model for the teams which entered then didn’t work.
The sport has changed hugely since Haas’s debut in 2016, and Cadillac’s acceptance to the series only came after a lengthy back and forth with the grid’s other teams over whether it could bring enough value to the paddock. Haas could also be a team to watch as they have the backing of Toyota now.
They have gone for experience with Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas in the driving seat, there entry comes after a long debate about whether they would add value to the sport and the rejection of a similar bid by Andretti. I think the different as they are a manufacturer-backed team; they can learn lessons from the Haas entry as well as the other series in which they have been successful.
This, I think, is a learning year or the remainder of this decade to be fighting for wins, but they will always be two years behind in terms of knowledge and understanding of the power unit. They need to be patient and maybe that will pay off. It took Honda six years, a lot of pain and a fractious relationship with McLaren before they won the drivers and constructors ‘ titles.
Final thoughts
2026, as always, will be an unpredictable journey across twenty-four races. It’s too early to make ‘hard’ predictions about the year ahead are more difficult because of the regulation change. Maybe we could get round to that after Sakhir, but we all love this sport, which is often about being the fastest. But in the first quarter of the year, is always key in building a championship challenge.
There are so many plot lines for nearly every team, whether that be new partnerships, new teams and throw into the mix a whole new set of power unit and aerodynamic regulations, we could be in for a great journey, off track as well its about how drivers and teams react. This could also shape the futures of drivers, their legacy and whether their decisions been right….