BEHIND THE HEADLINES – Canada – four-horse race but only one winner
Max Verstappen took victory in a very interesting race in Montreal, which I believe was a truly four-way battle for victory. throughout the weekend the fact that Red Bull was under pressure might give hope but there is also a bit of doubt this kind of battle will continue as the development battle swings into life over the next month and a half before the summer break.
Again, it wasn’t to me one of the dominant victories we have seen over the last two years and that final round of pit stops gave him a win, given the master strategy call the team made. Lando Norris without the trigger for those final pit stops I think could have followed in Lewis Hamilton’s footsteps, by winning the first two races of his career in North America.
Is Red Bull beginning to be derailed?
Following Red Bull’s victory, I felt it showed why they are champions, they have turned it around so many times in recent years and Montreal was another example of that. On Friday Verstappen, alongside the electrical issues, appeared to be uncomfortable over the bumps.
But I think qualifying proved that Red Bull and Verstappen can be beaten and they had been on the back foot. Verstappen was only able to match George Russell identically in qualifying when we have been used to the lead driver and team over the last decade pulling a mega lap out on a final attempt in qualifying.
Verstappen admitted that Mercedes was the quickest car in the race was more questionable. I look back to Bahrain where I had a feeling that Mercedes had stood still over the winter, but they hadn’t gone backwards, but while the basis I thought was good they struggled to find the operating window.
Norris said he “should have won” – and a first safety car period scuppered what was looking like becoming a race-winning advantage for the McLaren. And whenever Verstappen got into the lead, he never truly looked like losing it, and usually pulled away.
I’ll pick up on how Red Bull won later, but I’ve started to notice when watching and commentating on races that they can’t just sail off they need Verstappen to deliver on track.
However, the upcoming races in Barcelona, Spielberg and Silverstone the common feeling is that these circuits will swing back to Red Bull. But I think that the question is going to be there, as we move into the second half of the season. I always view the next five races over the next month and a half as one of the key foundations towards the championship.
I think Barcelona, where we could see another round of upgrades could give us some answers to whether the gap continues to close or whether Red Bull return to winning ways in such a dominant way we have seen in recent years.
How the race was won
Logan Sargeant’s crash on lap twenty-five triggered the first pit stops, but I don’t think that was decisive the second round was more important. The timing was perfect for Verstappen and bad for Norris, an almost reversal of the situation we had in Miami.
At the point of the safety car being called, the eleven-second lead was wiped out. I was surprised that McLaren didn’t do the normal thing, like Verstappen and Russell did, pitting immediately and that lost lead through the safety car with Norris coming back out in third.
But Red Bull undercut Norris which allowed Verstappen to warm up his tyres over the two laps following the safety car. When the McLaren rejoined the race Verstappen’s tyres were already up to the working window, which I believe was the difference between winning and losing.
Without that second safety car or if Norris maintained that lead, we would I feel seen Norris would have won the race thanks to the conditions. Following that first safety car it looks as if he was barely a second from the pit entrance. But another error by Russell came in the closing stages, his third in that race.
Fighting in the final laps with Oscar Piastri, Russell tried an overambitious move at the chicane on the outside and again took to the run-off, costing him more time, and a position to Hamilton. He fought back to pass both his team-mate and Piastri before the end. But any hope of catching Verstappen was gone.
He still felt “we didn’t do a good job, I think, as a team to box when we should have done and not get stuck behind the safety car”. It proves that you need luck in this sport which this time it went to Verstappen, which Norris appeared to accept it was luck.
This was his reaction “We’re at a level now where we’re not satisfied with a second, like the target is to win. And we didn’t do that. So, frustrating, but a tough race and still to end up in second when it could always finish and could be worse is still a good result.”
Ferrari was out of the picture, I think that is likely to be one of a handful of races we are likely to see where they are off the pace and I expect that in the fight behind Red Bull, it’s not ringing as a warning that they are in trouble. But it looks like their biggest problem once again was tyre warm up and probably their biggest mistake of the weekend, Canada might be a one-off off given the cooler conditions compared to most European races at this time of year
Mercedes missed opportunity
One driver who admitted that it “felt like a missed opportunity” was George Russell. Mercedes, I feel has made great progress in recent races, but he admitted two mistakes, arguably in my view three, which cost him significant time with some errors that were potentially decisive. The big picture for Mercedes in Montreal, though, was very much a positive one.
As mentioned above, it was the timing of that first safety car which cost him victory. throughout the weekend as Verstappen and Norris saying the Mercedes was quick, following qualifying. Verstappen and Norris that the Mercedes was the quickest car in the race was more questionable.
Norris said he “should have won” – and a first safety car period scuppered what was looking like becoming a race-winning advantage for the McLaren. And whenever Verstappen got into the lead, he never truly looked like losing it and usually pulled away.
Over the course of the season, I have felt that Mercedes have ‘stood still’ and haven’t gone backwards over the winter like last year. It is still a massive step forward for Mercedes and a justification for the work they have done in recent weeks. Unlike the last two years, Mercedes has not slipped back, rather their issues were magnified by McLaren having a really good start to the season.
Over the last four races, they have brought three key upgrades, new bodywork, then a new floor, and now a new front wing. That all has come together with Canada being their best performance of the season, maybe like Ferrari and McLaren, we could see them take a win at some point this year.
Asked if Mercedes could he have won? “Maybe for a few minutes we dreamt about it,” team boss Toto Wolff, said, “but in reality probably not.” Wolff’s realism rings true. Yes, Russell led the first 20 laps, but Verstappen and then Norris put him under increasing pressure as the track dried out.
Hamilton, a seven-time winner in Montreal, I think could have been in the fight and might have been part of the mix. He converted seventh into fourth, on a weekend he described as a “pretty bad weekend”, I was surprised given how Russell was fighting for victory this weekend.
Maybe there might be hope for him if he can get comfortable and re-find his mojo over the coming weeks, that he can end the Mercedes part of career with maybe a win. But he needs to start matching Russell regularly and return to his best
Looking to Barcelona
Next weekend I think is one of the most important ones because its more of a conventional circuit compared to the last four races. Many are expecting Red Bull to return to dominance again, but the big unknown is how big that could be, this could be important in the way the run into the summer break goes.
If Red Bull comes under pressure in the race I think we can be confident that this isn’t going to be as straightforward for them as 2022 or 2023… but time will tell…