BEHIND THE HEADLINES – The final countdown
With six races to go one thing is certain Red Bull will not waltz their way to the championship, the big question going into the middle leg was whether could they bounce back having not won since June and having lost the lead of the constructors to McLaren. There are plenty to play for including both the drivers and constructors’ championship.
I think as I wrote in my midseason review, we were all thinking given the strength of Red Bull they would be able to bounce back but they have been embroiled in scandal and that has led to a bit of a brain drain as we know Adrian Newey left the F1 project in May and in recent weeks we know that he is going to Aston Martin.
Looking at the issues they have in Max Verstappen’s words a “monster” of a car, and his talent could have masked that given the issues that his teammate Sergio Perez has had all season. Meanwhile, since his maiden win in Miami, Lando Norris has continued to make another step forwards with two more wins and six podiums excluding his crash with Verstappen in Austria hasn’t finished lower than fifth in a Grand Prix since Suzuka in April.
It feels as if it’s a crumbling empire this week the third key person head of race strategy Will Courtenay is joining McLaren at some point, but a lot of these departures seem to be long-standing staff members which you need to expect from time to time.
However he has an issue in converting pole into the lead at several races this season, but he hasn’t seen that almost ‘defeatist’ Norris all the time, but feels he ‘doesn’t deserve to win because he made too many mistakes,’ but the race in Singapore was lucky as his mistakes didn’t cost him. The struggles for Verstappen has taken the pressure off his teammate Sergio Perez who may have shown us that he as an expectational driver has driven around.
McLaren, I feel is the team to beat as they go looking for their first constructors championship since 1998, they have Norris and Oscar Piastri both fighting at the front unlike Red Bull given Perez has not performed when Verstappen has struggled.
This autumn break, however, could see things change again as there is no enforced shutdown and all the teams will be working hard to close the gap. I feel that based on what we have seen in recent weeks its going to be harder to navigate the way to the title but not impossible as he is still a big challenge I think if Red Bull gets its act together to win this championship.
Maybe the way the team has fallen away because of the restrictions on spending and wind tunnel time shows that these regulations are working in closing up the field in closing up the field but yet we were right to be sceptical given the domination we saw last year by Red Bull. But we have seen this before with Mercedes in Singapore this has become an outlier in terms of general trends of the season.
Championships aren’t always won at the start of the season, it’s the end of the season, this time last year we had and in fact it came true that Verstappen won the championship in Lusail with six Grands Prix to go. But this season I feel will go all the way to Abu Dhabi.
It is not only about strength at the start of the season but how you end a season, the development war, and given that we are going to have to wait to see what comes after the break and whether Red Bull can bounce back. But McLaren’s performance in Singapore following a difficult weekend in Baku, and despite almost no upgrades to Singapore, bar a revised beam wing, from the outside the turnaround in just seven days does not appear to have an obvious explanation.
But the key to understanding what happened is that F1’s top challengers have their strengths and weaknesses depending on the downforce levels used each weekend and the type of track. All teams have weaker circuits and bad weekends that’s part of the sport, you need to I think need to expect that.
It is in theory this could create a good championship fight.
What to watch
- Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz taking their final victory for Mercedes and Ferrari respectively before going to Ferrari and Williams
- Sergio Perez winning the Mexico City Grand Prix after a difficult season
- McLaren won the constructors for the first time this century.
- The fight in the constructors both for the championship and the rest of the positions as because that’s where the money is paid out
- Anything can happen in these final few races
What’s Ahead
There are six races to go across two triple a headers across the Americas and Middle East, including three sprint weekends, with a maximum of 180 points on the table as it currently stands Max Verstappen leads Lando Norris by fifty-two points, in theory, if Verstappen fails to score in Austin and Mexico City and Norris wins the next two races with the fastest lap, regardless of the sprints they could be tied on points with three Grands Prix and two sprints to go.
We have a mixture of circuits from high-speed downforce circuits like Austin and Abu Dhabi in fact most of them are like that and the more technical Interlagos and Las Vegas. Three-day time races and three night/twilight races, all these races are going to be a making of this season six races in seven weeks to decide this incredible season.
It has been very hard to predict race-to-race what team are going to be the one to beat, even going into FP3 or qualifying you don’t really know what is going to happen. Mexico City and Sao Paulo could be very interesting as we know these are the highest in terms of altitude which we know acts as a performance leveller.
Also, Sao Paulo also carries the risk of wet weather and that can lead to chaotic races that I think are going to be the most difficult weekend, also being a sprint for the teams to get right. But neither Norris nor Verstappen can afford slip-ups over the remaining races.
I think it will be interesting if Verstappen continues to struggle and Norris does continue these performances it could be an epic climax to this season. We saw in the last four races the volatility in all of the teams could create surprises along the way but that depends if one team can steal a march on the championship, but its multiple factors at play over the remaining races.
Red Bull I think are on the back foot given they are struggling with the car, Verstappen as great as he is isn’t able to drive the car how he wants which is never good for the driver. This is going to be an important factor. I still however feel that history tells us that it is how you start a season that wins you tend to secure the championship.
It has been so tight recently between the top four teams, as it is with the other six teams, no one can really afford a mistake or slip-up as it can be very costly in terms of points not only for Verstappen and Norris but the teams where the prize money is paid out. My gut feeling is that this championship will go all the way to Abu Dhabi.