We’ve made it to the halfway stage of the season as the sport heads on its summer break; this feels like a good point to look back and ahead. Mercedes may remain the favourites for this season; however, they have serious reliability concerns, which have the potential to make the second half of the season more interesting.
Has that inadvertently opened the door for a resurgent Lewis Hamilton to fight for an eighth title? His resurgence has been one of the stories of the season. The midfield battle remains competitive between Haas, Racing Bulls, Audi and Alpine
Mercedes
Many expected that Mercedes would run away with this championship, and George Russell would have the upper hand over his younger teammate Kimi Antonelli, but that hasn’t happened for two reasons, I believe: the team’s power unit reliability and the way the Italian has stepped up this season, being more consistent in his driving. We did see flashes of it last year, but he then threw it away in races with mistakes; this season he has stepped up and become the lead driver by accident.
The hype around the Italian coming into the sport last year was shaky on track but there was this excitement about him, to say the least; I think it was valid, as he has done even better than Max Verstappen at this stage of his career and has a genuine chance of winning a championship. However, he can be a bit ‘hot-headed’ in his communication, but I often think you need that to fight for the championship. Antonelli needs to be careful, as recent history has told us that the driver with less experience has lost out in the business end of the season.
I think Antonelli has all the credentials to fight with Russell and Lewis Hamilton, the other most likely driver to fight for this championship, but can he handle the end of this relentless season when we get into what’s scheduled to be three back-to-back triple headers from late September to early December?
Luck always plays a role in any championship; as Russell has said himself, he has had no luck this season: in GP qualifying in China, a safety-car intervention in Japan that handed the lead to Antonelli and retirements in Montreal and Spa. It’s not helped, as all thought his teammate has failed to score twice.
Mercedes, as a power unit provider, has a weakness, as we have seen multiple engine-related retirements across the works team and customer teams; what is more concerning is that they have been caused by different things. I remember writing after the Sakhir Tests that Mercedes look ‘fast but fragile,’ and so it has proved this isn’t an easy fix. This has inadvertently opened the door for Ferrari to fight for the championship.
Ferrari
2026 has been a much better season for Lewis Hamilton after the disaster that was 2025. From the opening race, you could see him a lot more comfortable in the car, and he started to match and beat Charles Leclerc. I think he needed to prove himself as one of the greats (that’s why I called the last edition that); it has allowed him, coupled with the reliability woes at Mercedes, to insert himself into what may have become a three-horse race.
There are certain echoes of Hamilton’s 2007 title fight; if and when things turn sour at Mercedes, that could open the door for him to take his eighth title. Many believe that, had a handful of moments gone differently, Hamilton could already be a nine-time world champion. The crash in Shanghai in 2007 and the events of Abu Dhabi 2021 alone are often cited as costing him two additional titles. You could even throw Abu Dhabi 2010 and 2016 into the debate, although Hamilton entered that finale as arguably the least likely of the championship contenders to prevail.
The irony would be hard to ignore: Hamilton could deliver Ferrari’s first drivers’ championship in twenty years, having inadvertently helped secure their last one through his costly mistake in Shanghai in 2007. What makes that season intriguing in hindsight is that two of the rivals standing between Hamilton and the title would later drive for Ferrari and fail to win a championship with the Scuderia, while Hamilton may now have the opportunity to succeed where they could not.
There are other ironies too. Hamilton’s breakthrough season in Formula 1 was defined by his bitter rivalry with the reigning world champion and teammate, Fernando Alonso. That campaign was also overshadowed by the Spygate scandal, which embroiled McLaren, Ferrari and Renault (Now Alpine). Nearly two decades later, Hamilton finds himself attempting to deliver a championship for Ferrari, the very team that stood on the opposite side of one of the sport’s most infamous controversies. Then the Crashgate scandal in 2008-09 engulfed Renault and Alonso’s team. The controversy remains one of the darkest episodes in F1 history, and its fallout indirectly shaped the championship battle that Hamilton eventually won over Felipe Massa.
Hamilton didn’t get on with not only last year’s Ferrari, but that whole previous cycle of regulations in my view because he couldn’t drive the car in a natural way for him. As well as last year leaving Mercedes after twenty-five years of some kind of backing. Not only is he going for a record-breaking eighth title, ending Ferrari’s title drought, he is also looking to be the first to win titles for three different teams since the 1950s.
McLaren
Lando Norris’ title defence has been let down by the car not being there and reliability, though I think they have made a lot of progress from where they were in Melbourne and that allowed him to win the final race going into the summer break. Though they were, I believe, helped by Ferrari, as team principal Fred Vasseur said they made “too many mistakes.”
Since the upgrade in Barcelona, as I expected given the way over the last cycle every update worked … though Norris for much of the race appeared to make a fatal error in Budapest. He converted his pole position into a lead at the first corner, only to misjudge the grip available at Turn Two, slide wide, and gift his position to team-mate Oscar Piastri.
The fact that Budapest is difficult to overtake even with evenly matched cars on similar strategies, but Norris stayed calm. Seeing he could easily keep pace with Piastri despite being in the dirty air, he said he always believed the win was on. Perhaps that is a of a champion; in commentary, I could see on the timing page that Norris looked faster and at one point he was begging for a change of strategy
But while he did get that, it came as a result of the way strategy played out for Piastri and Lewis Hamilton. Piastri was brought in to cover off the Ferrari of Hamilton, which released Norris. Piastri didn’t quite have the pace of Norris but was able to keep him behind. However, he lost time when Carlos Sainz turned in on him in error as Piastri was trying to lap the Williams, and Norris was able to jump him through the pit stops. Second was still on – but a gearbox issue forced his first retirement of the year.
Despite this being his first win as champion, Norris believes he is ‘driving better’ than he did in his championship-winning season last year. I think that’s something that has been underrated as when you come off a championship-winning year, results on the surface haven’t been headline-grabbing. But as the car has improved, they have pulled further ahead of Red Bull and are potentially knocking on the door of Ferrari.
Team principal Andrea Stella says this is a continuation of the trajectory Norris has been on since a lot of self-assessment led to his strong second half of last year, and eventually the title. Stella said, “Lando is much more confident. He’s much more aware of the tools that he has in his driving, how to deploy these tools. And I think he’s also, let me say, more in control of his emotions.”
“Because today, when he was behind Oscar, he said a couple of times that he had pace in hand, but he didn’t get overly frustrated. And the fact that he wasn’t overly frustrated, I think, then allowed him to use the pace at the right time and led him to the victory. We’ve seen a great trajectory of development for Lando.”
Reflecting on Budapest, it felt like they have come a long way and I hadn’t expected them to have done that at this stage in the cycle or season. But I think that’s testament to the strong leadership the team has; that’s why I think we haven’t seen a 2009 situation develop. Again, irony that Hamilton’s first win as champion in 2009 came after a huge turnaround and in Budapest.
Max Verstappen
One of the biggest critics of these new regulations comes from Max Verstappen, and I think, reading and reflecting on this season, there are multiple factors at play. Firstly, these regulations are not to his liking, and though he finished on the podium in Budapest, he was still complaining about these cars.
Verstappen is frustrated, but I think he needs to work through it, as you aren’t, in my view, a great multi-champion until you need to start losing. You don’t really see a great champion in terms of character. This year I think was always going to be difficult with their power unit being a first-time builder; in conjunction with the return of Ford, I think that in recent weeks, while the story hasn’t gone totally away, it has quietened down, though the summer could give him the chance to reflect
Silly season is well underway; recent reports emerged in the summer suggesting that the Dutchman’s team had held an informal chat with McLaren CEO Zak Brown, following on from rumours earlier this year that the Red Bull driver could make a direct switch with Oscar Piastri.
That suggestion was publicly rejected by Team Principal Andrea Stella, while Piastri’s manager Mark Webber also shot down the idea. With several months remaining in the 2026 campaign, will Verstappen want to continue in the team beyond this year and indeed in this sport?
Verstappen needs to be winning to keep him happy; you need to wonder if they have given him this freedom to do sports car racing to try and keep him motivated? I feel part of the reason he is competing in GT racing in a similar way to Fernando Alonso in his second McLaren stint. But he in my view, is one of the biggest drivers of Dutch fans.
Midfield
In my view, the midfield hasn’t changed as much as I thought it would given the scale of these regulation changes, though there is a bigger gap to the top four teams; the battle between Haas, Racing Bulls, Audi and Alpine has fluctuated race to race. But the most improved team, I have to say, is Alpine, which kind of vindicated that very controversial decision by parent company Renault to end its works engine programme.
Alpine, I think, needed that, as questions were being raised at the time about whether what’s known as Team Enstone would walk away if it didn’t pay off. Alpine are back in the midfield fighting for points, but given we effectively know the top four teams have a clear advantage if there aren’t problems, they are only really fighting for ninth and tenth, where they only get two or one point.
Haas are another team that has impressed me, as at the start of cycles they have tended to drop to backmarker status, but this season, as we saw last year, it’s almost as if they’ve stabilised themselves as a midfield team. I think we needed to see that, as we believe they are not operating at the cap, but Ayo Komatsu has quietly changed the team following the charismatic leadership of Gunther Stiener
Ollie Bearman has made that step you need in your second (full) season; writing this last year, I felt his results hadn’t matched his performances. This year it is slightly different: he has scored more points, but it’s the competitiveness which has made it more difficult. But he is delivering a ‘second season step’ I often feel you need as a driver.
The calibre of drivers coming through and this means it’s become harder to stand out, while also meaning it’s difficult to get a seat. This is a performance-based business, and you are either getting praise or under pressure from the media for not getting results, and we have seen that with Esteban Ocon, your failure is your teammate’s success.
The rumours suggest that Bearman has already been lined up as Hamilton’s successor, but he is prepared to wait at Haas. He told Beyond The Grid, “As an F1 fan and a Lewis fan as well, it’s pretty cool to see him performing at the level he is. Seeing him on the top step in Barcelona was quite a special moment for British F1 in general. It was three Brits on the podium, with the best driver we’ve ever seen in P1. That’s something pretty special.”
“Of course, in terms of my future, that’s not ideal. But I’m still young. I’m only 21. I’m not in a huge rush, and for me, staying at Haas for the foreseeable is not a bad thing. I feel like there’s a lot to learn at this team. There’s a lot to still achieve.”
Arvid Lindblad, as the only rookie, I think has put in a great performance as he has been fighting regularly with his teammate Liam Lawson. We know from history that British drivers tend to be very strong, and in my view, Lawson has managed to rebuild his career, which not many drivers have managed after losing their Red Bull seat or leaving Red Bull.
However, unless Verstappen goes through with the threat to quit, given the way Isack Hadjar, I think, has proven himself worthy of the promotion and needs time to develop into a lead driver, as if the Dutchman walks away, it could be damaging for him and Red Bull because he is still early on in his career. Lawson, I think, deserves a second chance, but that only appears if the Dutchman quits
Aston v Cadillac
Aston Martin had high hopes of progressing forward under these new regulations; that hasn’t happened yet, anyway, as they brought their big upgrade to Budapest, making it difficult to assess if the situation has changed. But the feeling is that once we get a couple of races after the break, Aston Martin could bounce back; this decision not to bring gradual upgrades is a risk which I think is too early to say if it has pulled away from Cadillac.
If it has, its gamble might pay off, but I doubt that it will repeat that given it has seen them at the back for most of this season; also it’s in transition, still moving and fine-tuning its new factory. Everyone was expecting more given the ingredients the team had, but as yet that hasn’t paid off. Yes, they weren’t expecting to be fighting for the championship right away but were aiming to lead the midfield, allowing them to eventually join the top four; that hasn’t happened.
Before the big upgrades in Budapest, the feeling was that they had been overtaken by Cadillac in terms of performance. Cadillac are about where they expected to be, given their resources as an organisation, because building an F1 team across two countries from scratch is a huge undertaking for any organisation. Mercedes went backwards before they won seven championships after buying Brawn in 2009.
I feel this could be following the summer break this could be one of the stories to watch as it will bring huge amounts of prize money for the team, and Cadillac won’t be getting any bonuses until 2028-29 when they become a power unit manufacturer. But they need to be careful as they mustn’t get ahead of themselves, as they could start making mistakes which may start costing them points.
Looking Ahead
The second half of the season is likely to be defined by pressure to deliver a championship; both Mercedes drivers, I think, remain the favourites, but recent history suggests that first-time contenders tend to let the pressure get to them. Antonelli has had a great run, making him the favourite, but as we saw with Norris in 2024 and Piastri in 2025, their challenges collapsed in the second half. What makes this different is that both of them are fighting for their first title.
I think, however, while Russell has more bad luck, you can’t dismiss him being the more experienced driver, but things can change very quickly, and it’s about how both drivers handle the pressure, not just of fighting for their first championship against a seven-time champion and a resurgent Ferrari.
That would be an incredible story given Ferrari’s failure over the last fifteen years with Alonso and Vettel, as well as an eighth championship; we know that Mercedes reliability has opened the door. Hamilton will face a tough challenge considering we expect that Mercedes remain favourites.
Norris got that win in Budapest; he is still mathematically in the points, anyone I think within a hundred points at this stage. The two Mercedes and Ferraris, as well as Norris, have a chance. But I think he is the least likely if Ferrari take more reliability issues for Mercedes and Ferrari not perfectly executing weekends to fight for the championship.
We also have a real mix of circuits during the second half of the season, from street circuits, the heat in Malaysia and Singapore, altitude in Mexico City and Sao Paulo, plus we don’t know where and when this season will end, making the maths more difficult at this stage.
