Behind The Headlines – Stories Which Will Shape 2023
This year marks the second year of the current regulations, while Red Bull’s Max Verstappen appeared to sail to his second title last year can Ferrari and Mercedes come back and fight all the way? This year sees the longest season, should Shanghai return to the calendar, the first year of the sliding scale tied to 2022 when it comes to wind tunnel and development time.
The big question going into this season is about whether the aims of closing the gap between all the teams. We know there is a reduction in the cost cap and the sliding scale between wind tunnel time all aimed at over time closing the field, perhaps we were too hopeful last year that the regulations would immediately create the multiple teams fighting at the front however the second half of the season turned towards Red Bull.
Red Bull is going to be the team to beat, but the question is whether its Mercedes or Ferrari who challenge them, ideally, we want a three-team and six drivers fighting for the championship. The team who have won the previous championship the year after a regulation change, in my view have the advantage especially given the dominance.
They will have reduced wind tunnel time both because of the breach of the 2021 budget cap and the handicap system they were given an extra 10% reduction beyond the regulations as punishment.
Its well documented the downfall and implosions that have affected Ferrari over the last thirteen years and we know Mattia Binotto has been replaced by Fred Vasseur. I think they need to get back to winning ways for the whole season, as a first step and stop making these mistakes on strategy. Vasseur is going to be a safe pair of hands the challenge is the transition from a smaller team to the biggest team in the sport
I feel that the fight will be close between the top three teams but as we often see there will be one team who in the latter stages of the year become favourites, the test for this year’s third year of the budget cap and second season when we get reporting, have lessons been learned about making the process easier.
Mercedes are being talked up as challenger to Red Bull and Ferrari, both by rival teams and the press. In my view I agree, we saw flashes throughout last year of the team’s performance once they managed to get on top of porpoising and bouncing as well as the other issues they faced after that
Porpoising should be not as big of an issue as we have the regulations adjusted to counter the effects of the bouncing. There is going to be minor changes to things like the floor to lose 15 to 20% downforce this will in theory close up the pack a bit as well, but this is more a safety change.
I think that their will be teams who will look to exploit the floor and other areas to regain that downforce, which will be particularly key in the midfield where we know its always close. I feel Mercedes is going to be a lot closer to Red Bull and Ferrari, but the real test for these midfield teams is can they start challenging the top three ending this almost decades-long gap between the top and midfield.
Alpine ended 2022 fourth their main rivals McLaren admitted ever since the disastrous test and opening race in Bahrain they were playing catch up then all season. Both teams have new driver lineups this season, but you must expect if they come out the box about the same level or as we saw last year there could see another close fight.
Both teams have new drivers with Esteban Ocon being partnered by Pierre Gasly at Alpine and Lando Norris joined by Oscar Piastri at McLaren. Alpine could, if it’s true about tensions in their junior careers have difficulties in managing their drivers, I personally don’t know the story or if there is a rivalry that could flare up again.
Both teams also need their drivers to score as many points as possible, the levelling up agenda you need to hope brings them closer to the top three. I feel McLaren need to bounce back, once Piastri settles into the team will he be a challenge to Norris, and I think that will possibly grow mid-season into 2024.
But as we have already said this is going to take time to figure out how both the handicap system on the development battle this year. However, the teams are very clever and while they will not want a repeat of the cost cap row at the end of 2022. The levelling up agenda is something we all want as I think Liberty want to build the business model of having what we see in the midfield at the front, which we expect this year with Mercedes returning to leading the pack.
Alpine as well I think had a decent 2022, partly because of McLaren’s issues where they were on the back foot after the nightmare in Bahrain. McLaren in my view can bounce back if they are not on the back foot from the start of the year, we know before last year’s regulation changes they were a midfield leader.
Norris has a big challenge this year he is the most experienced driver for the first time in his career, I think he his up to that challenge and you need to continue to grow as a driver to move the teams forwards, and you need to hope that other teams can have a close battle this year.
This as always is a marathon not a sprint. There will as ever be some races which favour some teams more than others in my mind anything can happen, we will get a better understanding of this in the early part of 2023.
I think in the early races we have a mixture of circuits which we have until June will give us an understanding, it may be harder as there is no testing in Barcelona this year. But in everyone’s mind this seems to be a bell weather circuit where you get an idea of all-round ability.
Off track, there doesn’t look to be a huge upheaval in terms of driver lineups for 2024, but the one to watch is Lewis Hamilton. If he isn’t back to winning ways this year could that open the questions about his long term future, but he has hinted that in the coming weeks he wants to sign a new deal. I doubt then he will retire from the sport this year, unless they go significantly backwards.
This sounds like with many of the big-name drivers and top/midfield teams locked into contracts for the next few years, is unlikely. The only team not to confirm is Mercedes though we have had hints from Hamilton a deal is likely in early 2023, I expect George Russell will sign pretty much soon after, its interesting how this year could play out I think Russell wants to be in between a Bottas and Rosberg.
The off-season has been as dramatic as the summer, the only real teams without some kind of changes is Red Bull. It will be interesting to see if total stability across all areas is a boost to them? But the fact Mercedes has only lost James Vowels who had over the course of 2021-22 handed a lot of his duties over to others, so I think their isn’t going to be a major impact.
So, 2023 will be a test for everyone as everyone tries to understand whether the levelling up agenda works, can anyone stop Verstappen and Red Bull from taking a third consecutive title…