Behind The Headlines – 2024 News Prixview
The year ahead will have one big theme can anyone catch Red Bull, we will hopefully preview the season ahead in a few week’s time. The season ahead is the longest in history with twenty-four races across the season, with less money thanks to the new financial regulations as we reach the midpoint in the current regulations and a decade since the current power unit regulations were introduced.
The past few years have been dominated by Red Bull, the team won all but one race and one sprint in 2023 it’s going to be very difficult to see them beat the records they set last year. But history says that was (probably) the most dominant season in the history of the sport and like we say during the season, momentum is a very powerful thing in sport.
Max Verstappen has a target on his back, but he has over the past three years in my view his ability to get stronger as the season goes on is a real trait we tend to see with multiple world champions like Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso. The Dutchman is going to be a great of our sport, we can say 2021 wasn’t just because of those controversial decisions but because of his skills.
I think the biggest challenge for Verstappen is living up to ‘the man to beat,’ winning three titles while the dominance has made it look like a walk in the park it’s never that easy. Though having a car and driver pairing which has been so dominant does make it easier to mask and recover from mistakes, but we all want the Dutchman to be challenged this season.
The most obvious place to start would be with Ferrari and Mercedes, though I don’t discount the likes of Aston Martin or McLaren. The pattern we saw in 2023 was Ferrari was the fastest car in qualifying but they again struggled with tyre life though the strategy did improve last season, I think they need a big year, both drivers are out of contract.
Though the consensus is that neither Charles Leclerc nor Carlos Sainz will leave Ferrari, but you can never be certain as nothing is agreed until the contracts are signed. I think Fred Vassuer has as we said in the review, changed the culture of Ferrari I believe that we will start to see more changes off track. But they need to start yielding results heading towards Red Bull, that won’t be easy if as I expect another step forwards this year.
They need to deliver as all their drivers are nearing the end of their contracts, at the start of 2024 neither Leclerc or Sainz have signed new deals, but I think its unlikely to see changes at Ferrari, and Mercedes as well, I think a major driver change or retirement is the only way we are going to see change. But to beat Red Bull both teams not only need a major step forwards but also consistency. We know that Audi has been rumoured to be interested in Sainz, but what does he do next year because they don’t join until 2026?
Mercedes have started the last two seasons on the backfoot if they are serious about beating Red Bull, they cannot start the season on the back. We know they will have a complete change of concept, but that is either a big step forwards or they face difficult questions…
It can be hard as I wrote in the review, to adjust to being the hunter rather than the hunted, Mercedes will be hoping that doesn’t fall into that situation. I know there are people trying to create stories but I think there is nothing more than the normal teammate tension, but we know that everyone wants a story and something I think where the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But we know George Russell is very much the future when Lewis Hamilton does retire. But his tone about racing into his forties has changed marking his birthday on Friday he said “never say never.”
Russell, I think needs to progress to show how close he is to Hamilton it is one all in terms of championship position, and I think it’s going to be interesting to see who comes out on top this year. Hamilton along with Alonso is still looking to be the first driver to win after their three-hundredth race start, but I think both these champions are still hungry and this rivalry between them dates back seventeen years to the Englishman’s debut season, the infamous Spygate season in 2007 when they were teammates at McLaren.
I think McLaren went into this season with one of the strongest driver pairings of younger drivers, once they sorted out the issues midway through last year they were up there with Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin. I however think the challenge for them is to ensure unlike the last two years, they don’t start the season poorly in Bahrain when their testing has been so bad they didn’t really hit the headlines until Austria really.
Oscar Piastri I said in the review had one of the best rookie seasons since Hamilton, but I’m of the belief it’s the second season which makes a driver, I think if Piastri has another season like he had once he got the mid-season upgrades that could be a very interesting dynamic at McLaren. There could be tensions developing but that will leave McLaren potentially losing points if they continue to match each other, they are a team that had the biggest turnaround during 2023. We know that this season’s car will be the first using the new wind tunnel, but I believe that will not have as much impact this season more 2025 and for the big regulation change in 2026.
Aston Martin was the big talking point during the early part of last season, they are another team who are on the up, as well as Williams it appears the decade-long financial crisis caused by the global recession and the pandemic is over. The money from sponsorship and the Drive To Survive is still coming in, but I think that won’t last if we see two or three more years of Verstappen dominance.
Aston is a team with big goals, but how many times have we seen the aims to be challenging for titles by a certain date met? Alpine are nowhere near the goals of the five-year plan its now seven seasons since they set out nearly a decade ago has got them nowhere near fighting for challenging for titles. I think it is going to be interesting as we move towards 2026 to see what Alpine do, as every time they have set out goals they have set out what would be a decade by 2026 after buying back the team from Lotus.
I think the midfield will be increasingly tighter again that could be the story, if Red Bull dominates but we would all love that feeling we had for the championship. As I wrote in the review stopping Red Bull is a big task, but we could see steps towards it. Alpine I think need so off-track stability for the next three years looking towards that regulation change.
Logan Sargeant at Williams, I think he needs a really good second season if he wants a long-term future, I think while he was always going to get another go he needs to deliver and match Alex Albon. Albon, I believe has rebuilt and become a decent midfield driver given the difficult start to his career but it hasn’t, as Helmut Marko once said been ‘destroyed by Hamilton,’ maybe the Red Bull family wasn’t the best environment for him to flourish in? but they are another in this rebuilding phase with the sale in 2020 to Dorilton.
I genuinely think it is very hard given the closest between Ferrari-Mercedes-Aston Martin/McLaren then the rest of the grid behind, makes it very difficult as we saw across the nine teams behind Red Bull. The development arms race now requires a lot of strategy as we know there is a reduction in the budget cap and while inflation is falling but the global rate is still 4.3% above pre-pandemic levels.
The recovery is slower we know because of the wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Gaza, these conflicts impact the supply chains and there was speculation that Abu Dhabi could have been cancelled. The budget cap because of higher inflation doesn’t adjust meaning the cap is roughly £106.9m for in 2024, £12m less than it was worth pre-pandemic.
That makes in my view the importance of spending the money in the right place is even more important, I think Aston needs to be careful as they get more resources and look to become front runners, I think we won’t get answers until 2026, the life cycle of the current regulations is shorter. But it’s now a decade since the V6-Hybrids so the engines are understood, but no real change in that area given the deal to freeze power units.
This season we nearly have an east–west calendar with Middle East-Asia-North America/Europe-Singapore-Americas-Middle East, it’s a lot better given the fact the sport is aiming for net zero by 2030. It will be interesting because we have a variety of different circuits in Sakhir, Shanghai and Suzuka, in the first two months this will allow us to get a good idea of what cars suit what circuits.
These are also ones which are challenging like Jeddah and Suzuka because they are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of what is required by set up, I think this season when we get into the European season we should have an idea of the order, but if Red Bull are still the team to beat I believe rivals will need to have a huge step forwards. Mercedes and Ferrari need a big step as I said in the season review.
The other thing we need to watch looking towards 2026 is the next hurdle for Andretti, at the end of last year the FIA cleared them as suitable entrants but they need to reach a deal with Liberty. The commercial deal could be more difficult, the argument for is having an American team and manufacturer in is the growth because of Drive To Survive which has brought new fans to the sport and the success of Vegas a few months ago.
I see both sides of the argument, as fans and viewers we want more teams but for the teams it means less cash to go around. It’s a tricky thing to do but the regulations allow for thirteen teams, I think its going to be a story which will rumble on through the first half of the year, but a decision I feel needs to be made soon on giving the green light to Andretti so they can be ready and do what Haas did but without the yo-yo effect we have seen from them.
2024 has some very interesting plots across the field, in politics, and global forces and that big question remains, can anyone stop Max Verstappen taking his fourth world title?