This weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix potentially marks the halfway stage, as things currently stand, in the championship, and it appears there are three main contenders: the Mercedes duo of George Russell and Kimi Antonelli and seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton.
With nine rounds complete, Antonelli holds a twenty-five-point lead at the top of the standings over his Mercedes teammate Russell. Hamilton is seven points further behind, meaning mathematically any one of the three could lead the championship after Budapest next weekend. Ferrari has continued to make progress over the second half of the season.
Though it’s too early to eliminate Hamilton’s team-mate Charles Leclerc, reigning world champion McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar, they would all require a significant run of results to bring them realistically into the championship fight.
The next ten days could be crucial for all, establishing which of the contenders’ heads into the summer break with momentum. Before the intensity ramps up in September, when a series of double and triple headers are scheduled, though uncertainty remains about how many races and where the season will end.
Antonelli has arguably been more impressive over the past three races than at any other stage of the season, and yet he has not won any of them, and his lead has shrunk by forty-one points. His last three races have been affected by two failures and his errors across the weekend in Spielberg, when he also lost out when Verstappen crashed in Q3 and through errors on track despite him being the fastest on track.
Even when Antonelli strung together the first five wins of his career during a historic streak, he didn’t appear to have the clear and consistent pace advantage that he’s had over Russell in recent weeks. But the big question from recent history remains: can he handle the pressure when the title race heats up, his luck will run out eventually, and he will not be able to get away with his mistakes?
Russell was the favourite going into this season, but while no one doubts his ability to grind the best possible result out of whatever pace he can produce on any given weekend, he’s simply not been quick enough recently. Russell has dug deep to keep Antonelli honest over one lap, pulling out pace late in qualifying on multiple occasions to snatch pole positions.
But the title favourite going into this season has not been able to outpace the Italian for much of the year, and Russell has appeared demoralised as it’s dawned on him that he simply can’t match the Italian’s pace. He’s admitted to having changed his driving style in an attempt to turn things around, but the most recent evidence at Silverstone was ominous as Antonelli dominated him in every facet other than points scored.
Barcelona was a breakthrough for Lewis Hamilton after strong races in Miami and Montreal. His first Ferrari Grand Prix victory in Barcelona has brought him into the title race. The seven-time world champion has looked back to his old self during the superb run of form but hasn’t quite had the pace to continuously take the fight to Antonelli.
He may have left Silverstone with some regret after Leclerc ended a run of five successive grands prix finishing behind Hamilton to win the British Grand Prix, but ultimately Antonelli’s misfortune meant his deficit to the top of the standings was reduced. Hamilton can hold out hope of Ferrari providing him with more pace with which to challenge his former team.
He has been consistently ahead of Leclerc who he has a thirty-nine-point lead, but he is going to need to maintain and perhaps even increase that margin to potentially earn preferential treatment later in the year. The other question is, when Ferrari brings their power unit upgrade, we believe at Zandvoort or Monza, coupled with the chassis, can they overtake Mercedes’ status as favourites?
Hamilton’s target for now must be to simply stay in striking distance in the hope that another engine upgrade will allow him to use his experience to reel Mercedes in over the closing rounds. Should we have a close contest going into the final few races, Hamilton’s huge experience advantage over Antonelli could give him a crucial edge in the Autumn.
