Russell names Verstappen and Leclerc as threats
George Russell has pinpointed Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc as Mercedes’ main title threats this season. The Englishman goes into this season as the favourite by both commentators and bookmakers, given Mercedes’ form in pre-season testing and their dominance following the last change in the power unit regulations in 2014.
Although Ferrari set the quickest lap times in Bahrain testing, Mercedes were very fast on the long runs, which are more representative, and the Silver Arrows did not appear to show their full hand over one lap. Asked who he saw as Mercedes’ biggest title challengers when it comes to the Drivers’ Championship, Russell said to the media: “I would say, Max and Leclerc.”
His teammate Kimi Antonelli added, “We think Red Bull is very strong, so for sure Max is going to be in the mix. Ferrari look very strong in Bahrain, both in long runs and on a single lap, especially Leclerc, but I wouldn’t write off Lewis as well, because he can be very much in the mix.”
“Maybe also the McLaren, but they seem a little bit more on the back foot compared to Ferrari and Red Bull, but for sure, Max and Charles could be the main ones.”
In another interview with Sky Sports, Russell appeared to soften his stance, saying, “Red Bull have exceeded everybody’s expectations with their engine, so naturally Max will be in the fight. Ferrari also looks very strong. Charles looks very strong, but you can never discount Lewis [Hamilton]. As it stands, those are the other drivers that are on the radar, who I think will be in the mix.”
“McLaren has been so successful in years gone by. They look a bit on the back foot currently, but that can all change. We saw that a couple of years ago when they went from the back to the front, so we can’t discount anyone.”
Russell has said throughout the winter this year is a “huge opportunity”, but he’s in a “good place” and “ready to fight” for the championship. He believes that they have delivered a strong car, but can’t take anything for granted because of the development war.
Norris confident McLaren can develop from being on the backfoot
Lando Norris says his team’s history of developing itself to the front has bolstered his confidence that McLaren ‘won’t be on the back foot’, even if it’s not among the two quickest teams in Melbourne.
This weekend, the first true picture of the order is to emerge, though it is expected that it will fluctuate circuit to circuit, with the world champions believing it will likely be the third quickest team as the 2026 rules era gets underway – behind pre-season favourites Mercedes and Ferrari.
While teams are starting from a clean sheet of paper with the 2026 cars, McLaren’s impressive eighteen month development curve across the 2023 and 2024 season, which turned it from an also-ran into a dominant force, is a reminder that the team is capable of developing its way to the front from a slower start
When asked by Motorsport.com if that back story is giving him more confidence that McLaren’s outlook could look very different towards the end of the season, Norris replied: “I don’t think we’re starting on the back foot. Even if you’re second, third or fourth quickest, I don’t think that’s on the back foot. I think that’s still a very good position to start in.
Oscar Piastri, who finished third in the 2025 championship after a breakthrough campaign, added, “It would be very optimistic to say we’re going to have the same form as we did here twelve months ago. I think we’re somewhere towards the front, but from testing it kind of feels like Mercedes and Ferrari have got a little bit on us and Red Bull, I would say.”
“In previous years where it’s been harder to improve over the course of a season, we’ve certainly proved that you could. And I continue to believe that, you know, it’s a long, very long season.” I think McLaren are not where they want to be, but they are near the front and could develop themselves into the championship fight.
Norris said his tough first half of the 2025 campaign, during which he struggled with his car in qualifying, showed that there is no reason to panic if the early stage of the 2026 season isn’t going his or the Woking team’s way.
Adding “One of the big [lessons] from last year is to not get too frustrated with one or two bad races, a bad beginning of a year. It can always come back your way as long as you keep working on it.”
“I have very good faith in the team that they can, if we don’t start in the best way possible, that we will be able to continue to work as efficiently as possible to bring upgrades, bring big things later on through the season to help turn things around if that is the case.”
Hamilton looking to fight for eighth title
Lewis Hamilton says his goal is to win the championship, with Ferrari are “leaving behind the bad” as he begins his second season with the team. The seven-time champion failed to be on a Grand Prix podium all season for the first time in his career, but following his break over the winter, he has been in a more buoyant mood leading up to this weekend’s season-opening Australian Grand Prix.
Not since 2021 has Hamilton been able to challenge for the championship and the 41-year-old stressed he is “much happier” compared to a year ago, having spent a year with Ferrari to understand their culture and team operations.
He said ahead of this weekend, “We got great mileage done in winter testing – an amazing amount of work has been done from the team back at the factory, but also delivering on those tests.”
“We’ve learned a lot from last year. We’re leaving behind the bad and moving forwards with the good, and we’re just sharp. We are prepared, and we know what we need to do. We also know there’s massive challenges for all of us with the new rules and regulations.” Ferrari impressed with their strong single lap and race pace, which is a more representative view of the pecking order.
The paddock consensus is Ferrari and Mercedes are favourites for the first race in Melbourne, although Hamilton hinted Red Bull may have been sandbagging when asked about his realistic ambitions.
He said, “The goal is to win. That’s what everyone’s working towards – every team is. But that’s our goal, to maximise on every opportunity, to be lean, to be hopefully fighting in the top group, hopefully in the first races. We don’t really know.”
“Mercedes looks particularly quick, and I’m not really sure whether we have seen the full unleashed Red Bull yet, so it’s really, really exciting. But I do know that, whatever the case, I feel like I’ve got a great group of people behind me who are head down, focused on bringing performance and really maximising from every weekend.”
The Ferrari driver wrote in an Instagram post that there will be “no holding back” and stated last month he “forgot who I was”, during the ground effect era but these new regulations look more suited to his driving style.
Asked where the renewed energy has come from, he said: “A combination of things. The break was really positive. It was my surroundings, it was the people that I was with. It’s not my first rodeo, so it’s understanding how to flip things, and it’s not that easy to do each time.
Hamilton parted ways with his long-term manager, Mark Hynes, during the off-season and is yet to find a new race engineer after Riccardo Adami was moved into a different role at Ferrari. Carlo Santi, Kimi Raikkonen’s former engineer, will work with Hamilton until an appointment is made.
F1 monitoring the war in Iran
F1 says it is monitoring the situation in the Middle East following the US and Israel’s launch of an attack against Iran on Saturday, sparking retaliatory strikes across the region. Last weekend, the travel plans of 1,000s of personnel were thrown into chaos after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The region serves as a key hub for F1 and its logistics in Doha and Abu Dhabi.
Head of the organisers of this weekend, Travis Auld, said on Monday that “everyone will be here ready for the race” as Melbourne prepares to host the 2026 curtain-raiser.
Many drivers and other key personnel based in Europe have had their travel plans affected by the major disruption to global air transport, with routes through Qatar and the United Arab Emirates particularly affected.
Auld said, “The last 48 hours have required some reshuffling of flights. That is largely Formula 1’s responsibility. They take charge of the teams, drivers and all the personnel that are required here to make this event happen. There’s quite a number of them. My understanding is that’s all now been locked in, everyone will be here ready for the race and fans won’t notice any difference.”
But confirmed that all the freight flights from Bahrain and Europe had arrived in Melbourne; however, the headache now will be flying in drivers, team personnel, media and fans in from around the world as Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubia and Sakhir act as key transit hubs for the sport between Europe and Asia.
Latest estimates suggest that more than 1,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict, according to figures shared on Wednesday by US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Although the Bahrain Grand Prix is five weeks away, F1 has no more than two weeks before it has to make a decision as to whether the two races can go ahead because of the need to fly equipment to the two countries. On Thursday, it emerged that they are unlikely to be replaced if cancelled due to the Iran war, despite speculation about potential alternate events.
Russell, Grand Prix Drivers’ Association director, said: “Ultimately, I think all of us trust F1 and the FIA just to make the right decision. It’s going to be changing daily I’m sure, and we’re still four or five weeks away.”
“I don’t think anyone is really pressing those questions because there’s still a long time between now and then, and of course, it’s kind of outside of our hands. So, yeah, trusting the guys at the top to make the right decision and if we don’t, I’m sure there’s plan Bs in place. But, we’re not asking and we trust they’re on it.”
Those thoughts were echoed by his fellow GPDA director Carlos Sainz after an F1 spokesperson recently told the BBC that it is monitoring the situation.
An F1 spokesperson said: “Our next three races are in Australia, China and Japan and not in the Middle East – those races are not for a number of weeks. As always, we closely monitor any situation like this and work closely with relevant authorities.”
Last weekend’s tyre test in Sakhir was cancelled as a precaution, Bahrain has a US Naval base in the capital Manama.
FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has expressed concern at the situation and called on unity amid the geopolitical conflict. Ben Sulayem wrote on Instagram on Monday,n “As President of the FIA, my thoughts are with all those affected by the recent events in the Middle East. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life and stand with the families and communities impacted.”
“At this moment of uncertainty, we hope for calm, safety, and a swift return to stability. Dialogue and the protection of civilians must remain priorities. We are in close contact with our Member Clubs, championship promoters, teams, and colleagues on the ground as we monitor developments carefully and responsibly.
Given the race is six weeks away there is little chance of scheduling replacements, with a decision to cancel the races could have a significant financial impact – the fees paid by the two oil-rich countries add up to well over $100m. These would not be paid if the races are cancelled.
No realistic options for replacement or a double header in Suzuka is said to be unviable, given the impact on personnel, which would mean two races in eight weeks between Japan and the return to Europe in June.
Earlier today, there was also a strike on Azerbaijan’s autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, near the Turkish border, opening yet another front in the ongoing war launched by the United States and Israel and the retaliation from Tehran, according to Azeri authorities. The race in Baku is not until mid-September and Istanbul has been rumoured as a possible replacement.
Talking Points Melbourne
Round one of the season sees the beginning of a new era in Melbourne with arguably the biggest changes in the sports history. That makes the 2025 pecking order redundant and presents the opportunity for many to start from scratch – some may need that more than others.
It is also an estimation game as to who comes out on top in Melbourne, with nine days of testing across Barcelona and Bahrain offering the only information fans have to go off when it comes to picking the pecking order. After the test, the consensus appears to be that Mercedes, Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari remain the top four, but the question is in what order.
It is only from Melbourne that we will be able to see what the racing is actually like, and whether it backs up a suggestion from Norris that wheel-to-wheel combats will be “more chaotic”, with drivers “yo-yoing” due to the different technical aids and active aerodynamics. This may lead to overtakes will occur in locations not witnessed before due to battery harvesting.
But Albert Park, which has been dubbed an ‘energy-poor’ circuit. This is because it is harder to recuperate energy at the venue due to its high-speed corners, so efficient harvesting will be key for success.
George Russel goes into this season as the favourite both because of the teams performance and the way it s dominated the last engine switch in 2014 when it went on to win the next eight championships, and the German marque continued its tag of having the best power unit through the ground effect era – even if its factory team didn’t claim any titles.
A lot of that was only talk for 2026, however, without having seen cars on track – but then Mercedes duly delivered in testing. The way it was able to complete its long run programme was impressive, with Kimi Antonelli comfortably logging times in the 1m36s-1m37s bracket on C3s in Bahrain. But, there have been signs of reliability issues in testing, could that open the door for McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari?
Ferrari looks to be the second strongest team, with both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton looking motivated after a tough 2026. The question is can Hamilton bounce back after a disappointing first season with the team? The prospect of retirement is ever-present and if things don’t improve for him in 2026, there is a good chance that he could ride off into the sunset.
Aston Martin is in big trouble. The Honda unit has serious issues, as vibrations from the internal combustion engine are causing the battery to repeatedly fail. As a consequence, the AMR26 has covered just 2,115km in pre-season testing – the least of all teams. Going into the season opener, they are expecting to struggle in practice and not to finish the race. It will be a remarkably steep learning curve back to the midfield – let alone the owner’s loftier ambitions.
For the first time in a decade, we have eleven teams on the grid with Cadillac making its debut. Not a lot is expected of the American outfit, though, which’ll probably be in a battle against Aston Martin to avoid the wooden spoon, but this looks to be a longer-term project, as by 2030 they aim to be fighting near the front.
So, for Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez to not be too far off the pace in Melbourne while completing a solid portion of the race would be a good start. But Cadillac isn’t the only manufacturer making its F1 debut in Australia, as German giant Audi will do so after completing a takeover of the historic Sauber.
Audi has more expectations given a it had a decent 2025, and largely boasts the same personnel and facilities that Sauber did, plus is enjoying continuity of the Nico Hulkenberg-Gabriel Bortoleto pairing, which scored seventy points in 2025. Both drivers reaching Q2 at Albert Park would be an encouraging start.
Verstappen Red Bull has “quite a bit of work to do”
Max Verstappen believes Red Bull has “quite a bit of work to do” to consistently compete with their rivals at the front of the field, but praised the team for the foundation they built over pre-season testing. The Dutchman narrowly missed out on claiming his fifth title to McLaren’s Lando Norris last season, ending up just two points short after he launched a mighty comeback over the course of the year.
Speaking ahead of the season opener, and asked about his hopes of Red Bull’s competitive level, Verstappen said: “We had quite a decent pre-season. It’s been a big learning curve, but we’ve been running well, been doing a lot of laps, so there’s not actually a lot we could’ve wished for that could’ve gone better.”
“In terms of performance, I don’t know. I think we still have quite a bit of work to do to be up at the front, but this is also something that I had already planned for it to be like that. I just try to do my best and, like I said before, we are positive and happy with what we have done so far, but we also know that if we really want to fight up front, we need to be faster. That’s what we will work on.”
Verstappen says he is going into this weekend to see how it is and is wanting to have a decent weekend result.
While every team must learn the intricacies of their new power units, Red Bull faced the extra challenge of building their own for the first time under their Powertrains division, established after Honda announced their intentions to end their partnership.
Verstappen explained on Red Bull’s powertrains project, “It’s been a really nice project to see how it came about and the development over the last four years. It was honestly a really proud moment when I jumped in the car.”
“Things can always go better but things can also go a lot worse, and I think our starting point is very good, and we can be very happy and satisfied with that. Of course, the racers inside of us and the team that is here to fight for wins always want more.”
His teammate Isack Hadjar who made his debut but failed to start last years race after crashing on his way to the grid, hoping it will be a better round this time, he said: “I’m happy to be fighting for better results this year. It’s definitely exciting and it’s a brand new journey, so I’m honestly just looking forward to our improvement over the year.
“I can expect points normally, but that’s not really what we want. To be fair, if we finish the race, considering reliability might be tricky for every team, it’s still a very good start.”
Bottas will not serve grid penalty
Valtteri Bottas will not have to serve his five-place grid penalty from Abu Dhabi 2024, following a change to the regulations. Bottas was due to drop five places from wherever he qualifies on the season-opening Australian Grand Prix grid this weekend as a result of an outstanding F1 penalty.
In Bottas’s last F1 race at the 2024 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix before losing his Sauber seat, he was involved in a collision with now Cadillac teammate Sergio Perez. Bottas tagged Perez into a spin on the first lap of the 2024 season finale and earned a ten-second time penalty. Later in the race, he locked up both front wheels and drove into the Haas of Kevin Magnussen.
Having picked up damage, Bottas retired from the race. Unable to serve the drive-through penalty he picked up for ramming into Magnussen, the stewards converted the penalty into a five-place grid penalty for the next race he contests.
As Bottas did not compete last year, there was no opportunity for him to serve the penalty, meaning that “next race” technically would come in Melbourne this weekend.
However, a change to the sporting regulations includes a change to article B2.5.4, which states that for cases of fifteen or less cumulative “unserved grid penalties for the Race imposed in the previous twelve (12) months” are taken into account when forming the grid.
Aston Martin woes
Aston Martin goes into the season having fallen into a hole. As we said during testing, the Honda Power unit has been unreliable because of their decision to briefly withdraw at the end of 2021. The team failed to carry out its testing programme, spending more time in the garage than out on track.
Honda is completely unprepared for the Australian Grand Prix, with multiple engine failures in Bahrain jeopardising spare parts supplies, to the extent that Aston Martin considered skipping Melbourne by invoking force majeure. This would have been a PR disaster for Aston Martin, Honda and the sport as the new regulations begins, Aston would have had to pay compensation for breaking the Concorde Agreement’s terms.
The AMR26s will be in Australia, but only intend to make the 107% rule to qualify for the grid and race for a few laps before retiring. Meanwhile, a crisis unit has been created to support Honda, with team boss Adrian Newey’s staff in touch with the Sakura personnel to address it.
Honda has admitted that the vibrations from the V6 engine were causing the hybrid system’s battery, which is housed in the chassis, to fail.
Aston’s chief strategy officer, Andy Cowell, who led Mercedes’ F1 engine department to multiple world titles, has been sent to Japan, but time is running out to restore basic reliability before even working on performance.
Newey is believed to have sarcastically commented that Honda’s internal combustion engine wasn’t powerful enough to recharge the battery – it reportedly lacks some 80hp in those conditions. The situation makes it impossible to assess the AMR26’s development and plan for its upgrade schedule.
Aston Martin ‘likely’ to retire from Melbourne
Aston Martin team principal and chief technical officer Adrian Newey has suggested the team will be unlikely that either of the team’s cars will be able to finish Sunday’s season-opening Australian Grand Prix due to concerns that vibrations could cause serious damage to their drivers.
In Sakhir testing it became clear that the team were experiencing major issues with their Honda power unit, the first supplied to them in a new partnership for 2026 with the Japanese manufacturer. In a press conference on Thursday Honda’s Koji Watanabe in Melbourne, at which they revealed the power unit’s vibration problem was not only impacting the functionality of the car but also the safety of drivers Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll in Sunday’s 58-lap race.
Newey said, “Fernando is of the feeling that he can’t do more than 25 laps consecutively before he will risk permanent nerve damage to his hands. Lance is of the opinion that he can’t do more than fifteen laps before that threshold.”
“I think there’s no point in (not) being open and honest in this meeting (press conference) on our expectations. It’s something that unfortunately Koji and I haven’t had a chance to discuss properly prior to this meeting.”
“We are going to have to be very heavily restricted on how many laps we do in the race until we get on top of the source of the vibration and improve the vibration at source.” The vibration issue is preventing Honda from running its power unit at full capacity, which also meant they were unable to complete the mileage we had originally targeted.
With a shift towards more electrical power as the sport attempts to become more sustainable, there were expected to be teething issues. However, it is a major shock that Honda, who powered Red Bull’s Max Verstappen to four successive championships from 2021-2024, have got it so badly wrong, while first-time engine manufacturers Red Bull and Audi appear to be competitive.
Watanabe said he was unable to give a timeline for how long it will take Honda to get their power unit to a competitive level, as he made the concerning admission that they have yet to find the “root cause” of the issue.
Bearman doesn’t want to “draw any conclusions
Ollie Bearman doesn’t want to “draw any conclusions” from the Australian Grand Prix, arguing that the season-opening race could be the “worst-case scenario” for the new regulations due to the lack of braking zones at Albert Park.
While the Englishman admitted he had some reservations about the upcoming weekend of racing, he looked to the silver lining of capitalising on the chaotic moments. He told the media, “Definitely, with chaos comes opportunity, and I’m looking forward to getting out there. Of course, this track is maybe not the best start for these regulations, simply because of the nature of the circuit.”
“It’s there with Monza, with Austria, with Jeddah as being one of the more challenging ones. We don’t have much energy to play with, simply because there aren’t many braking zones. I think it’s going to be maybe the worst-case scenario of these regs. I’m remaining open-minded, I don’t want to draw any conclusions after Australia.”
Bearman says it’s going to be interesting when we get back to Europe and teams have everything figured out, but he wants a clean weekend so Haas can have a clean weekend. He says that means “we’re going to have to be on top of our efficiency and on top of our strategies and everything. It’s going to be chaotic, but it’s a great opportunity as well, so I’m looking forward to that.”
